In the last assembly polls, Ahir's win over Shiv Sena candidate Ashish Chemburkar was with the slender margin of 5,000 votes. This time, Sena has changed its candidate, taking a chance on former corporator Sunil Shinde.
Though all five major parties are in the fray in Worli, the real fight is between NCP and Sena. While Congress and BJP are marginal players, MNS seems to have lost its teeth this time. In 2009, MNS's candidate was third with 32,000 votes (compared to Sena's 47,104 and NCP's 52,398). Had it not been for MNS, Sena would have won the seat, pundits say. But in this election, MNS may not be able to dent Sena's vote share as its supporters are likely to side with Shinde. The union leader is hugely popular among Worli's large working class segment. Associated with the Sena outfit Sthaniya Lokadhikar Samiti, he has been working for employment rights for Maharashtrians. In giving him the ticket, Sena has made a strategic move.
In the 2012 municipal corporation elections, four of six wards elected Sena. NCP could bag only two seats.
Will the split with BJP affect Sena's prospects? For one, likely BJP voters—the urban middle class and the rich—are no match to the Sena's or the MNS's bases. Second, such voters are known to undergo the democratic process of voting with a great degree of detachment. "Sena never depended on BJP. We have a strong network of Sainiks and we fight for local issues," said Shinde. "Locals are not happy with the sitting MLA because despite being a minister, he has not helped in the redevelopment of chawls and Worli Koliwada."
Worli constituency, comprising the Mahalaxmi, Lower Parel and Worli localities, used to be the city's mill heartland. Though most of the mills have been replaced by residential skyscrapers and upscale shopping and entertainment complexes, the constituency's population continues to be dominated by working-class Maharashtrians, inhabiting its countless chawls. The area has all conceivable civic problems, including traffic congestion, lack of parking space and low water pressure.
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