MUMBAI: India Ratings and Research — a part of the international rating agency Fitch Group — has revised its FY15 gross domestic product (GDP) growth forecast to 5.7% from 5.6% (April 2014 forecast). "Even though the Union Budget FY15 has addressed certain supply-side issues plaguing the economy, we believe a single budget or one year's policy reforms are not enough to ensure a non-inflationary, sustained and higher economic growth. Moreover, policy announcements take time to play out," the agency said in a statement.
"We expect agricultural growth to drop to 1.3% in FY15 (FY14: 4.7%) on delayed as well as weak monsoon. Although the monsoon's poor spread over space and time in June 2014 (43% below average) recovered in July 2014, the deficiency continues to be 21%, " the statement added.
India Ra said it expects industrial GDP growth in FY15 to improve to 5.1% from our earlier estimates of 4.1% (FY14: 0.4%). If achieved, it will be the highest since FY12 (7.8%). The Index of Industrial Production (IIP) grew 4% over April-May 2014. All segments — both at the broad and use based industrial classification — showed positive growth. Also, the Index of Eight Core Industries grew 4.6% during 1QFY15. Although it still early to call it a trend, the agency believes this could be the beginning of a broad-based industrial recovery.
"On the inflation front, we expect both the Wholesale Price Index as well as the Consumer Price Index based inflation to decline to 5.4% and 7.9%, respectively, in FY15 (FY14: 6.0% and 9.5%). This is based on the premise that the government would intervene timely and efficiently in the agricultural commodity market, should the prices begin to rise owing to the deficient monsoon, " it said.
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