With assembly elections a month away, the sabre-rattling between the BJP and the Shiv Sena has intensified despite the spectacular performance of the saffron alliance in May. Obviously, the chief ministership of an important state like Maharashtra is at stake and both parties have their eyes set on the coveted chair. Nonetheless, the sudden hardening of stance by the BJP has come as a surprise to some political pundits. The question that many are asking is: Without an alliance, both the parties would stand to lose. So why the brinkmanship?
We conducted an opinion poll in Maharashtra last week in about 50 constituencies spread over the state and polled close to 3,000 voters. Our objective was to understand the support for the individual parties — BJP, Congress, Sena and the NCP — at the ground level.
As seen from the poll numbers, there is clearly an increase in support for the BJP as compared to the LS polls. Interestingly, this increase is being witnessed uniformly in all regions of the state, although in the urban areas it is slightly more pronounced. It appears that since the LS elections, the BJP on its own has gained quite significantly (about 10% more votes) at the expense of the others including the Sena.
I will not be surprised at all if the BJP poll managers have conducted their own polls and come to a similar conclusion and hence, the hardening of position. If these poll numbers were to hold true, the BJP with 37% votes would easily gain simple majority in the assembly without an alliance with the Shiv Sena. I have to assume the Congress-NCP alliance will be in place despite their differences.
If BJP-Sena keep the alliance intact, they are heading for a massive win. In the LS polls, the alliance or Mahayuti of BJP-Sena and Swabhimana Paksha received almost 50% votes and managed to win 42 of the 48 seats. If the Mahayuti stays, and they bag 55% vote share, as our survey shows, they are headed for 230+ seats in the assembly.
In our survey, we also asked the respondents for their preferred CM candidate. The sudden demise of Gopinath Munde has created a void in leadership in the BJP in Maharashtra. Given this void, we wanted to be a little creative and included Nitin Gadkari on our list.
My projection is that regardless of whether there is an alliance between the BJP and the Sena or not, the BJP will win in Maharashtra.
(The author, an IIT alumni, is chief executive of US-based Fuzzy Logix, which provides software and services for high performance computing on Big Data. He is a keen follower of social, political and economic events in India and has a deep interest in application of analytics)
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